Warnings Before Russia’s Ukraine Invasion

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine was shocking, but few could claim to have been

truly surprised. Leading NATO powers had been publicly and privately warning of such an event

for several months, even going so far as to suggest the likely date of invasion.

Government spokespersons explained that it was unlikely to occur sooner because Russian President

Vladimir Putin would have been reluctant to unleash his forces while the Beijing Winter Olympics

were ongoing, thereby detracting attention from Chinese ally Xi Jinping’s exercise

in soft power.1 Indeed, citing a ‘Western intelligence report’, journalists were

subsequently briefed confidentially that the Chinese government had allegedly requested no invasion until