Why the 25x Rule Can Fail

If you’re planning to retire using the 25x rule, you may be playing Russian roulette

with your future. Here’s the math most people never hear. The standard advice

says: save 25 times your annual expenses, withdraw 4%, and you’ll be fine

forever. But that rule is based on old data. If the market drops right after you

retire, sequence-of-returns risk can destroy that plan. A bad first decade

can drain your portfolio long before old age— even if markets recover later.