Bayes' Theorem in Cold Cases

Ever wonder how investigators avoid wrongful convictions in cold cases? It starts with

a simple formula. A DNA match sounds definitive. But in a city of millions,

a one-in-a-million match means nothing. That is where Bayes' theorem comes in.

It helps us update our beliefs based on new evidence. Before the DNA,

we look at prior odds. Was the suspect in the city? Did they have

motive? Next, we weigh the DNA. Is the match

strength high enough to rule out every other person? Bayes combines these factors.

It turns a tiny scrap of DNA into a powerful tool for justice.